Circled Game

What is a Circled Game?

A circled game in sports betting is a game where the sportsbook has decided to limit its betting action, typically by lowering the maximum wager amounts. This is a risk management strategy employed by bookmakers when there is significant uncertainty surrounding a game, making it difficult to set accurate odds. When a game is circled, it signals to bettors that the sportsbook is proceeding with caution.

How It Works

When a sportsbook circles a game, it's essentially putting up a yellow flag. The primary reason for this is almost always related to key player injuries. If a star quarterback, a starting pitcher, or a leading scorer is questionable for a game, their participation, or lack thereof, can dramatically swing the outcome and the point spread. Rather than pulling the game off the board entirely, the bookmaker will circle it, allowing betting to continue but with lower limits. This protects the sportsbook from massive losses if a key piece of information, like a player being unexpectedly ruled out, swings the odds dramatically after many large bets have been placed.

Other factors that can lead to a circled game include:

• Weather: Extreme weather conditions, such as high winds, heavy rain, or snow, can significantly impact the scoring and outcome of a game, particularly in sports like football and baseball.
• Line Movement: If a betting line is seeing an unusual amount of money placed on one side, causing the line to move significantly, a sportsbook might circle the game to investigate the reason for the lopsided action.
• Rumors and News: Any significant news or rumors that could affect the outcome of a game, such as a potential trade or a team's internal issues, can also lead to a game being circled.

Example

Let's say the Kansas City Chiefs are scheduled to play the Buffalo Bills. The day before the game, the Chiefs' star quarterback, Patrick Mahomes, is listed as questionable with an ankle injury. The sportsbook, unsure if Mahomes will play, decides to circle the game. This means that instead of the usual $5,000 maximum bet, the limit is lowered to $500. This allows the sportsbook to continue taking bets on the game while minimizing its risk. If Mahomes is later confirmed to be playing, the circle will likely be removed, and the betting limits will return to normal. Conversely, if he is ruled out, the odds will be adjusted accordingly, and the game may remain circled.

Why It Matters

For the average bettor, a circled game is a clear signal to be cautious. It indicates that there is a significant variable in play that could dramatically affect the outcome of the game. While it might be tempting to try and take advantage of the uncertainty, it's often a risky proposition. Professional bettors, however, may see a circled game as an opportunity. If they have information that the general public does not, or if they have a strong opinion on how the uncertainty will play out, they may be able to find value in the adjusted odds.

In essence, a circled game is a mechanism that allows sportsbooks to maintain a fair and orderly market in the face of uncertainty. It's a fundamental concept in sports betting that highlights the importance of staying informed and understanding the factors that can influence the outcome of a game. By paying attention to circled games, bettors can make more informed decisions and better manage their own risk.