Advanced Theory
Deep dives into Expected Value, Kelly Criterion, Closing Line Value, variance, and professional betting concepts.
Expected Value (+EV) Betting: The Foundation of Profitable Gambling
How to identify and exploit positive expected value opportunities in sports betting.
Expected Value (EV) Deep Dive: The Foundation of All Gambling Math
Every gambling decision comes down to one question: is this bet +EV or -EV? Here's how to calculate it for any situation.
The Kelly Criterion: Optimal Bet Sizing for Maximum Growth
The mathematical formula that tells you exactly how much to bet. Used by professional gamblers, hedge funds, and anyone who takes edge seriously.
Implied Probability and No-Vig Lines: Reading the True Market
How to strip the bookmaker's margin from the odds and see what the market really thinks about an event.
Variance, Standard Deviation, and Sample Size: When Can You Trust Your Results?
How many bets do you need before your results mean anything? The math behind confidence intervals in sports betting.
Market Efficiency in Sports Betting: Can You Really Beat the Books?
Are sports betting markets efficient? Where do inefficiencies exist? And how long do edges last before the market corrects?
The Psychology of Gambling: Cognitive Biases That Cost You Money
Your brain is wired to make bad gambling decisions. Here are the cognitive biases you need to overcome.
Building a Sports Betting Model: A Step-by-Step Framework
How professional bettors build statistical models to find value. A practical framework you can start using today.
Regression to the Mean: Why Hot Streaks Don't Last
Ever wondered why that incredible winning streak came to an end? This article explores the statistical concept of regression to the mean, explaining why hot streaks in gambling are often followed by a return to average performance. Learn the difference between this phenomenon and the gambler's fallacy, and gain practical advice for navigating the ups and downs of your betting journey.
Bayesian Thinking for Bettors: Updating Your Beliefs
In the world of gambling, where uncertainty is the only certainty, bettors are constantly searching for an edge. This article will guide you through the fundamentals of Bayesian thinking and its practical applications in the gambling world, showing you how to make smarter, more informed betting decisions.
Monte Carlo Simulation: Testing Your Betting Strategy
Unsure if your betting strategy is a winner or just a lucky streak? This article demystifies the Monte Carlo simulation, a powerful tool to test your betting systems, manage risk, and understand the true role of luck in your long-term profitability.
Elo Ratings Explained: Predicting Match Outcomes
Dive into the world of Elo ratings, a powerful system for quantifying player skill and predicting match outcomes. This article breaks down the history, mathematics, and practical applications of Elo, showing you how to leverage it for more informed betting decisions.
Correlation in Parlays: Same-Game Parlay Math
Unlock the secrets of Same-Game Parlays. This article demystifies the complex math of correlation, explaining how sportsbooks price SGPs and revealing the 'hidden juice' that affects your payouts. Learn to be a smarter bettor by understanding the link between outcomes.
Staking Plans Compared: Flat, Kelly, Fibonacci, and More
A disciplined approach to bankroll management is what separates successful bettors from the rest. This article explores various staking plans, from the simple Flat Betting to the complex Kelly Criterion, to help you choose the best strategy for your betting style and risk tolerance.
The Mathematics of Casino Games: Complete House Edge Reference
Delve into the mathematical advantage that casinos have in every game. This comprehensive guide explains the house edge and provides a complete reference for popular casino games, helping you make informed decisions.
Poisson Distribution in Sports Betting
A deep dive into the Poisson distribution, exploring its mathematical underpinnings and demonstrating its practical application in sports betting.
The Wisdom of Crowds and Betting Markets
An exploration of how the collective intelligence of bettors shapes the odds, creating an efficient market that is difficult but not impossible to beat.
Closing Line Value: The Best Predictor of Long-Term Profit
An explanation of why consistently beating the closing line is the ultimate measure of betting skill and the most reliable predictor of long-term success.
Power Ratings: Building Your Own Team Rankings
A guide to creating and maintaining your own sports betting power ratings, the foundational step in moving from guessing to quantifying your edge.
The Efficient Market Hypothesis Applied to Gambling
An exploration of the Efficient Market Hypothesis and its powerful implications for sports betting, explaining why the market is so hard to beat.
Game Theory and Bluffing in Poker
An introduction to game theory and its application in poker, focusing on the mathematics of bluffing and optimal strategy.
Markov Chains in Sports Prediction Models
Learn how Markov chains can be used to model and predict the outcomes of sporting events, providing a data-driven approach to sports betting.
The Mathematics of Arbitrage Betting
Discover the world of arbitrage betting, a mathematical strategy that guarantees a profit by exploiting discrepancies in the odds offered by different bookmakers.
Log Utility and the Kelly Criterion Connection
Explore the relationship between logarithmic utility and the Kelly Criterion, a formula for optimal bet sizing that maximizes the long-term growth of your capital.
How Bookmakers Set and Move Lines
An inside look at how bookmakers set and move betting lines, including the factors that influence their decisions and what line movements can tell you about the market.
Statistical Significance in Betting: How Many Bets Do You Need
This article will delve into what statistical significance means in the context of betting, how to measure it, and the all-important question: how many bets do you need to be confident in your results?
The Concept of Edge: Quantifying Your Advantage
This article will demystify the concept of edge, providing a clear, mathematical framework for understanding, calculating, and ultimately leveraging it to your advantage.
Handicapping vs Model-Based Betting Approaches
This article will explore the nuances of each approach, their respective strengths and weaknesses, and how the modern bettor can blend the two for optimal results.
Machine Learning in Sports Prediction: Current State
This article provides a snapshot of the current state of machine learning in sports prediction, exploring the common models, the data powering them, and the emerging frontiers.
The Central Limit Theorem and Betting Bankrolls
This article will break down the Central Limit Theorem and explain why it is a bettor's best friend in the face of variance.
Survivorship Bias in Gambling Success Stories
Survivorship bias is the cognitive error of focusing on the winners in a particular domain and ignoring the losers, leading to a skewed perception of the odds of success. This article explores how this bias manifests in the world of gambling and how to avoid it.
Risk of Ruin: Calculating Your Probability of Going Broke
The risk of ruin is the mathematical probability that a gambler will lose their entire bankroll. This article explains the concept, how to calculate it, and strategies for managing it.
The Difference Between Luck and Skill in Gambling
While luck determines the outcome of a single bet, skill is what separates winning and losing gamblers in the long run. This article breaks down the luck-skill continuum and how to tell the difference.
Optimal Stopping Theory: When to Cash Out
Optimal stopping theory is a branch of mathematics that deals with the problem of choosing the right time to take a particular action to maximize an expected reward or minimize an expected cost. In gambling, it can help you decide when to cash out your winnings.
Information Asymmetry in Betting Markets
Information asymmetry occurs when one party in a transaction has more or better information than the other. In betting markets, this can give savvy gamblers a significant edge.
The Law of Large Numbers and Why Small Samples Lie
Understand the fundamental mathematical principle that governs all gambling and why you can't trust short-term results.
Prospect Theory: Why Gamblers Make Irrational Decisions
Delve into the psychology of risk and loss aversion to understand the cognitive biases that lead to poor gambling choices.
Compound Growth and the Power of Small Edges
Learn how to harness the power of compounding to turn a small, consistent betting edge into significant long-term profits.
The Gambler's Ruin Problem: A Mathematical Analysis
Explore the classic mathematical problem that demonstrates why a gambler with a finite bankroll is destined to lose against a house with a massive one.
How to Backtest a Betting Model
A step-by-step guide to testing your betting strategies against historical data to validate their effectiveness and avoid costly mistakes.
Regression Analysis for Predicting Sports Outcomes
A deep dive into using regression analysis to predict sports outcomes, covering different model types, how to build and evaluate them, and their inherent limitations.
The Role of Variance in Tournament vs Cash Game Strategy
An exploration of the mathematical and strategic implications of variance in poker, contrasting the approaches required for tournaments versus cash games.