Monte Carlo Simulation
The Variance Machine
Run 20 parallel betting seasons simultaneously. Same win rate, same strategy — wildly different outcomes. This is variance.
Profitable Seasons
15 / 20 (75%)
Best Outcome
$3100
Worst Outcome
$-1291
Average P&L
$723
20 Parallel Seasons (200 bets each, $100 flat at -110)
$3600
$-1727
$0 line
Final P&L Distribution
Worst: $-1291Best: $3100
The Lesson
Only 15 of 20 seasons were profitable despite a 55% win rate. The spread between best ($3100) and worst ($-1291) is 4391 — that's variance.