Prop Betting Strategy: Finding Soft Lines in Player Props

Why Props Offer Value

Player props are one of the softest markets in sports betting. Here's why:

1. Less attention from sharps — Most sharp money focuses on sides and totals
2. Lower limits — Books accept less action, so they spend less time pricing them
3. More props = more inefficiency — A single NFL game might have 200+ props
4. Correlation opportunities — Props can be correlated with game outcomes

Building a Prop Model

Step 1: Collect Data

Gather the player's recent stats (last 5-10 games), season averages, and matchup data.

Step 2: Adjust for Context

• Opponent's defense ranking against that stat category
• Home/away splits
• Pace of play
• Weather (for outdoor sports)
• Rest days

Step 3: Project a Number

Create your own projection for the player's stat line.

Step 4: Compare to the Line

If your projection differs significantly from the sportsbook's line, you may have found value.

Example

Patrick Mahomes passing yards: O/U 285.5

Your analysis:

• Season average: 278 yards/game
• Opponent allows 295 yards/game to QBs (5th worst)
• Home game (Mahomes averages 290 at home)
• Your projection: 292 yards

The over at 285.5 looks like value because your projection (292) is well above the line.

Common Prop Markets

Tips

1. Specialize — Focus on one sport and one stat category
2. Track your results — By sport, stat type, and book
3. Shop aggressively — Prop lines vary wildly across books
4. Beware of correlation — Don't double-count factors