Riding a Heater
Sports Betting 101
beginner6 min read

Point Spreads Explained: How to Bet the Spread

Everything you need to know about point spread betting — the most popular way to bet on football and basketball.

What is a Point Spread?

The point spread is a number set by oddsmakers to create a balanced betting market. It represents the expected margin of victory for the favorite.

How It Works

Chiefs -7.5 (-110) vs Eagles +7.5 (-110)

  • Chiefs -7.5: The Chiefs must win by 8+ points for this bet to win
  • Eagles +7.5: The Eagles must lose by 7 or fewer points (or win outright)

The spread "levels the playing field" so that both sides are approximately equally likely to cover.

Why Spreads Exist

Without spreads, everyone would bet on the better team. Spreads create a 50/50 proposition (approximately), which allows the sportsbook to profit from the vig on both sides.

Key Concepts

Covering the Spread

A team "covers" when they beat the spread. If the Chiefs are -7.5 and win 31-20, they covered (won by 11, which is more than 7.5).

Push

If the spread is a whole number (e.g., -7) and the favorite wins by exactly that amount, the bet is a "push" and your stake is returned. Half-point spreads (e.g., -7.5) eliminate pushes.

Buying Points

You can pay extra juice to move the spread in your favor. This is most valuable around key numbers (3 and 7) in football.

Spread Betting Strategy

  1. Focus on the number, not the team — The question isn't "who wins?" but "will they cover?"
  2. Shop for the best line — A half point matters enormously
  3. Understand key numbers — 3 and 7 in football are critical
  4. Track ATS records — A team's spread record matters more than their win-loss record for betting

Powered by the MIT Triple Stack

Expected Value + Kelly Criterion + Monte Carlo — the same math from MIT and Bell Labs.