Moneyline Betting: When to Bet Favorites and Underdogs
A strategic guide to moneyline betting — when favorites offer value, when to take the dog, and how to calculate your edge.
What is Moneyline Betting?
Moneyline betting is the simplest form of sports wagering: pick the winner. No point spreads, no totals — just who wins the game.
Reading Moneyline Odds
- Chiefs -200: Risk $200 to win $100 (Chiefs are the favorite)
- Eagles +170: Risk $100 to win $170 (Eagles are the underdog)
When to Bet Favorites
Favorites are worth betting when the implied probability underestimates the true probability:
Example:
- Chiefs -200 implies 66.7% win probability
- Your model says Chiefs have a 72% chance
- Edge: 72% - 66.7% = 5.3% → Bet the favorite
When to Bet Underdogs
Underdogs offer value when they win more often than the odds suggest:
Example:
- Eagles +170 implies 37.0% win probability
- Your model says Eagles have a 42% chance
- Edge: 42% - 37% = 5% → Bet the underdog
Moneyline vs. Spread
| Situation | Better Bet |
|---|---|
| Close game, small spread | Moneyline underdog |
| Large spread (7+) | Spread (either side) |
| Heavy favorite (-300+) | Spread or avoid |
| Toss-up game | Either works |
The Moneyline Underdog Strategy
In close games (spreads of 1-3 points), moneyline underdogs often offer better value than the spread because:
- You get paid more when they win outright
- You don't need them to cover — just win
- Public bias inflates favorite prices
Risk Management
Heavy favorites (-300 and beyond) are dangerous because one upset wipes out multiple wins. A -300 favorite must win 75% of the time just to break even. Always calculate the implied probability before betting large favorites.