NBA Over/Under Totals Betting Strategy Guide
Understanding NBA Over/Under Totals
NBA Over/Under betting, also known as totals betting, is a popular way to wager on basketball games. Instead of betting on which team will win, you're betting on the total number of points scored by both teams in a game. The sportsbook sets a line, and you bet on whether the final score will be over or under that number.
How it Works
Let's say the Los Angeles Lakers are playing the Boston Celtics, and the over/under is set at 220.5 points. If you bet the over, you're predicting that the combined score of both teams will be 221 points or more. If you bet the under, you're predicting that the combined score will be 220 points or less.
It doesn't matter which team wins the game or by how much. The only thing that matters is the total number of points scored.
Reading the Odds
Like with point spreads, you'll see odds attached to the over/under line. These odds, known as the vig or juice, represent the commission the sportsbook takes. The most common odds are -110, which means you have to bet $110 to win $100.
Factors to Consider When Betting NBA Totals
Several factors can influence the total number of points scored in an NBA game. By analyzing these factors, you can make more informed over/under bets.
Pace of Play
Pace of play is one of the most important factors to consider when betting totals. Teams that play at a fast pace tend to have more possessions, which leads to more scoring opportunities. Teams that play at a slow pace tend to have fewer possessions, which leads to lower-scoring games.
Offensive and Defensive Efficiency
Offensive and defensive efficiency are advanced stats that measure how many points a team scores and allows per 100 possessions. These stats can give you a more accurate picture of a team's true strength than traditional stats like points per game.
Injuries
Injuries to key players can have a significant impact on the total. If a team's leading scorer is out, their offense will likely suffer, which could lead to a lower-scoring game. Conversely, if a team's best defender is out, their defense will likely suffer, which could lead to a higher-scoring game.
Recent Form
It's also important to consider a team's recent form. Are they on a hot streak, or are they in a slump? Have they been playing high-scoring games or low-scoring games? These trends can give you valuable insights into how a team might perform in their next game.
Profitable NBA Totals Betting Strategies
Here are a few strategies you can use to increase your chances of winning your over/under bets:
1. Look for Mismatches in Pace
When a fast-paced team plays a slow-paced team, it can create a mismatch that you can exploit. The fast-paced team will try to push the tempo, while the slow-paced team will try to slow the game down. The team that is able to dictate the pace will have a significant advantage.
2. Target Tired Teams
Teams that are playing on the second night of a back-to-back or at the end of a long road trip are often fatigued. This can lead to sloppy play and poor shooting, which can result in lower-scoring games.
3. Pay Attention to Line Moves
Line moves can give you valuable information about where the smart money is going. If you see a total move significantly in one direction, it could be a sign that the sharps are betting on that side.
4. Shop for the Best Lines
As with any type of betting, it's important to shop for the best lines. By having accounts at multiple sportsbooks, you can compare the totals and find the most favorable line for your bet.