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NBA Home Court Advantage Betting Strategy Guide

NBAbeginner 7 min read

Key Takeaways

  • Home court advantage is a significant factor in the NBA.
  • Crowd noise, travel fatigue, familiarity with the court, and referee bias all contribute to home court advantage.
  • Not all home court advantages are created equal.
  • There are certain situational spots where home court advantage is even more valuable.
  • Home court advantage is even more important in the playoffs.

NBA Home Court Advantage Betting Strategy Guide

Understanding NBA Home Court Advantage

Home court advantage is a well-known phenomenon in sports, and it's particularly significant in the NBA. Teams tend to play better in their home arenas, and this can have a major impact on the outcome of games. As a bettor, it's important to understand the factors that contribute to home court advantage and how to account for it in your handicapping.

Factors Contributing to Home Court Advantage

Several factors contribute to home court advantage in the NBA:

  • Crowd Noise: A loud and supportive home crowd can energize the home team and rattle the visiting team. This can lead to mistakes by the visiting team and a boost in performance for the home team.
  • Travel Fatigue: The visiting team has to travel to the game, which can lead to fatigue. This is especially true for teams that have to travel across multiple time zones.
  • Familiarity with the Court: The home team is familiar with their home court, including the rims, the lighting, and the dead spots on the floor. This can give them a slight edge over the visiting team.
  • Referee Bias: Studies have shown that referees are subconsciously influenced by the home crowd. This can lead to more favorable calls for the home team.

Profitable NBA Home Court Advantage Betting Strategies

Here are a few strategies you can use to profit from home court advantage in the NBA:

1. Don't Treat All Home Court Advantages Equally

While the standard home court advantage is worth about 3 points, it's important to remember that not all home court advantages are created equal. Some teams have a much stronger home court advantage than others. For example, teams that play at a high altitude, like the Denver Nuggets and Utah Jazz, have a significant home court advantage due to the thin air. It's important to do your research and identify the teams with the strongest and weakest home court advantages.

2. Look for Situational Spots

There are certain situational spots where home court advantage is even more valuable. For example, a team that is playing at home after a long road trip is likely to be energized and motivated. A team that is playing a nationally televised game at home is also likely to be more focused and intense. By identifying these situational spots, you can find value in betting on the home team.

3. Consider the First Half

Home teams often come out strong in the first half. They're energized by the home crowd and they want to get off to a good start. This can create value in betting on the home team in the first half. You can often get a good line on the home team to cover the first-half spread or to win the first half outright.

4. Pay Attention to the Playoffs

Home court advantage is even more important in the playoffs. The intensity of the games is higher, and the crowd is more engaged. Teams with home court advantage in the playoffs have a significant edge. In a seven-game series, the team with home court advantage gets to play four games at home, which can be the difference between winning and losing the series.

Put This Strategy to Work

The MIT Triple Stack uses Expected Value scanning, Kelly Criterion sizing, and Monte Carlo simulations to find your edge.

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