Value Bet
sports bettingA bet where the probability of winning is greater than what the odds imply, giving the bettor a mathematical edge.
Key Takeaways
- 1Value exists when true probability exceeds implied probability
- 2Value = (Your Probability × Decimal Odds) - 1
- 3Value bets can and will lose — it's about long-term math
- 4You don't need to pick winners, just find mispriced odds
What is a Value Bet?
A value bet exists when the true probability of an outcome is higher than the implied probability of the odds. In other words, the sportsbook is offering better odds than the event warrants.
The Formula
Value = (Your Probability × Decimal Odds) - 1
If the result is positive, there's value.
Example
- Odds: +150 (decimal 2.50)
- Your estimated probability: 45%
- Value = (0.45 × 2.50) - 1 = 0.125 = +12.5% edge
Finding Value
- Build your own model — Estimate probabilities independently
- Compare to the market — Look for discrepancies
- Track CLV — Consistent positive CLV confirms you're finding value
- Specialize — Focus on specific sports/leagues where you have an edge
Value Doesn't Mean Winning
A value bet can still lose. In fact, a +150 value bet with 45% true probability will lose 55% of the time. Value betting is about long-term mathematical expectation, not individual results.
The Key Insight
You don't need to pick winners. You need to find odds that are wrong. A bet on a team with a 30% chance of winning at +400 odds is more valuable than a bet on a 70% favorite at -300.