Riding a Heater
Back to Encyclopedia

Regression to Mean

sports betting

A statistical concept that suggests that an outcome that is extreme on a first measurement will be closer to the average on a second measurement. In betting, this means that a team or player with an unusually high or low performance is likely to perform closer to their average in the future.

Key Takeaways

  • 1A statistical concept that suggests that an outcome that is extreme on a first measurement will be c

Regression to Mean

A statistical concept that suggests that an outcome that is extreme on a first measurement will be closer to the average on a second measurement. In betting, this means that a team or player with an unusually high or low performance is likely to perform closer to their average in the future.

Example

After their surprisingly dominant win last week, regression to the mean suggests they will have a more average performance in their next game.

The Daily Heater

Best odds across 15+ sportsbooks, delivered daily.