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Fixed Odds

sports betting

A betting system where the odds are agreed upon at the time the bet is placed and do not change.

Key Takeaways

  • 1Fixed odds are locked in when you place the bet
  • 2Line movement after your bet doesn't affect your payout
  • 3This creates opportunities to capture closing line value
  • 4Most sports betting uses fixed odds

What are Fixed Odds?

In a fixed odds betting system, the odds are locked in at the time you place your bet. Regardless of how the line moves afterward, you get paid at the odds you took.

Fixed Odds vs. Parimutuel

FeatureFixed OddsParimutuel
Odds locked atTime of betAfter all bets are in
Used inSports bettingHorse racing, lottery
Odds set byBookmakerTotal betting pool
Can shop for better oddsYesNo

Why Fixed Odds Matter

Fixed odds create opportunities for sharp bettors. If you bet a line early and it moves in your direction, you've captured Closing Line Value — a key indicator of long-term profitability.

Example

  • You bet Chiefs -3 at -110 on Monday
  • By Sunday, the line is Chiefs -5 at -110
  • You still get paid at -3, which is now a much better number

Powered by the MIT Triple Stack

Expected Value + Kelly Criterion + Monte Carlo — the same math from MIT and Bell Labs.