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Favorite
sports bettingThe team, player, or outcome expected to win. Indicated by negative odds on the moneyline.
Key Takeaways
- 1Favorites are expected to win and have negative moneyline odds
- 2Bigger favorites require more risk for less reward
- 3One upset can wipe out multiple favorite wins
- 4Public bias toward favorites can create value on underdogs
What is a Favorite?
The favorite is the team, player, or outcome that oddsmakers expect to win. On the moneyline, favorites are indicated by negative odds (e.g., -150), meaning you must risk more than you stand to win.
Reading Favorite Odds
| Odds | Risk | Win | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| -110 | $110 | $100 | 52.4% |
| -150 | $150 | $100 | 60.0% |
| -200 | $200 | $100 | 66.7% |
| -300 | $300 | $100 | 75.0% |
| -500 | $500 | $100 | 83.3% |
Heavy Favorites and Risk
The bigger the favorite, the more you risk for less reward. A -500 favorite must win 83.3% of the time just to break even. One upset wipes out five wins.
Favorite Bias
The public overwhelmingly bets favorites, especially in high-profile games. This creates a "favorite-longshot bias" where favorites are slightly overpriced and longshots are slightly underpriced in certain markets.