Edge
generalA mathematical advantage over the opposing side. The house has an edge in casino games; sharp bettors seek an edge in sports betting.
Key Takeaways
- 1An edge is a mathematical advantage
- 2The house always has an edge in casino games
- 3In sports betting, edges exist but are hard to find
- 4Your edge = your probability estimate minus implied probability
What is an Edge?
An edge is a mathematical advantage. In gambling, it refers to the percentage advantage one side has over the other. The casino always has an edge in their games (the house edge). In sports betting, sharp bettors try to find situations where they have an edge over the sportsbook.
House Edge Examples
| Game | House Edge |
|---|---|
| Blackjack (basic strategy) | 0.5% |
| Craps (pass + odds) | 0.85% |
| Baccarat (banker) | 1.06% |
| Roulette (double zero) | 5.26% |
| Slots (typical) | 5-15% |
Finding an Edge in Sports Betting
To have an edge, your estimated probability of an outcome must exceed the implied probability of the odds:
Your Edge = Your Estimated Probability - Implied Probability
Example
- Odds: +150 (implied probability: 40%)
- Your estimate: 48% chance of winning
- Your edge: 48% - 40% = 8%
The Hard Truth
In casino games, you cannot overcome the house edge in the long run (except card counting in blackjack). In sports betting, edges exist but are difficult to find and maintain.