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Collectibles & Alternative Investments

Sports cards, Pokemon, sneakers, watches, LEGO, and more. Collectibles are alternative investments with massive upside potential. Apply the same EV analysis to your collection.

Collectible Categories

Sports Cards

High Vol.

Graded sports cards (PSA, BGS). Rookie cards of star players are the blue chips.

5Y ROI
+45%
Liquidity
8/10
Entry
$50-$500
Top Platforms
eBayCOMCStockXAltGoldin Auctions
Risk Factors
Player performance/injuryGrading inconsistencyMarket saturationCounterfeits

Pokemon Cards

Extreme Vol.

Vintage and modern Pokemon TCG cards. 1st Edition Base Set is the holy grail.

5Y ROI
+120%
Liquidity
7/10
Entry
$20-$200
Top Platforms
eBayTCGPlayerStockXMercari
Risk Factors
Nostalgia-driven demandReprints devalue modern cardsCondition sensitivityBubble risk

Sneakers

Medium Vol.

Limited edition sneakers from Nike, Jordan, Yeezy, New Balance. Resale market is massive.

5Y ROI
+25%
Liquidity
9/10
Entry
$150-$500
Top Platforms
StockXGOATeBayGrailed
Risk Factors
Retro releases kill valueFakes are sophisticatedTrend-dependentStorage/condition

Luxury Watches

Medium Vol.

Rolex, Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet. Some models appreciate significantly.

5Y ROI
+35%
Liquidity
7/10
Entry
$5,000-$15,000
Top Platforms
Chrono24Bob's WatchesCrown & CaliberHodinkee
Risk Factors
CounterfeitsService costs ($500-$2000)Market correctionsWaiting lists

Fine Wine

Low Vol.

Investment-grade wines from Bordeaux, Burgundy, Champagne. Physical or fund-based.

5Y ROI
+30%
Liquidity
4/10
Entry
$1,000-$5,000
Top Platforms
VinovestWine-SearcherSotheby's WineCult Wines
Risk Factors
Storage requirementsIlliquidityVintage variationAuthentication

Comic Books

High Vol.

Graded comics (CGC). Key issues and first appearances drive value.

5Y ROI
+55%
Liquidity
6/10
Entry
$100-$1,000
Top Platforms
eBayMyComicShopHeritage AuctionsComicConnect
Risk Factors
Movie/show announcements swing pricesCondition is everythingSpeculation bubblesRestoration detection

NFTs & Digital Collectibles

Extreme Vol.

Digital art and collectibles on blockchain. Extremely volatile but massive upside potential.

5Y ROI
-30%
Liquidity
5/10
Entry
$10-$500
Top Platforms
OpenSeaBlurMagic EdenRarible
Risk Factors
Market crashed 90%+ from peakRug pullsNo intrinsic valuePlatform risk

LEGO Sets

Low Vol.

Retired LEGO sets appreciate 10-15% annually on average. Star Wars and Creator Expert lead.

5Y ROI
+65%
Liquidity
8/10
Entry
$50-$300
Top Platforms
BrickLinkeBayAmazonStockX
Risk Factors
Storage space neededBox condition mattersRe-releasesSlow appreciation

Collectibles Investment Strategy

EV Analysis

Calculate the expected value of any collectible purchase: (P(appreciation) × gain) − (P(depreciation) × loss) − (fees + storage costs). Only buy when EV is clearly positive.

Kelly Position Sizing

Don't put your entire collection budget into one item. Use Kelly Criterion to determine allocation. Diversify across categories and within categories for optimal risk-adjusted returns.